Europe’s Three-Year Countdown: From Dependency to Deterrence in a New Age of Threats

Europe is at a decisive moment where it must balance dependency, deterrence and strategic autonomy in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

At Join Capital’s Asymmetric Advantage summit in Berlin last month, a panel of distinguished leaders and security experts critical perspectives emerged on Europe’s path to safeguarding its sovereignty and resilience.

Steered by Join Capital’s Sebastian von Rippentrop, the group included Lieutenant-General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandart of NATO, former Ambassador of the BND, Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, Estonia’s Ministry of Defense official, and Bastian Giegerich of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Deterrence, Hybrid Warfare, and the Three-Year Window

Jürgen-Joachim von Sandart defined deterrence not simply as possessing military capability, but as convincingly demonstrating readiness and willingness to use it. Effective deterrence is signaling to adversaries that aggression will be countered with fast and considerable resistance. He suggested that Europe has critical gaps in its preparedness, in particular when it comes to mobilising forces.

These vulnerabilities must be closed within three years.

Hybrid warfare is on the rise. It combines cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, infrastructure sabotage and assassination attempts. Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven shared specific examples like Russian cyber-attacks on German critical infrastructure. He called for a proactive approach and suggested a coordinated response to these threats.

Estonia’s Playbook: Innovation, Agility, and Strategic Spending

Estonia, represented by its Ministry of Defense official, is the poster child of strategic foresight and innovation. Estonia, geographically vulnerable to Russian aggression, plans to increase defense spending significantly, rising to an extraordinary 5.4% of GDP, well above NATO’s 2% benchmark.

Estonia’s success in defense innovation, including sophisticated cyber defense and integrating artificial intelligence into military strategy, serves as a blueprint for broader European efforts. The country’s streamlined procurement processes and collaboration with Nordic and Baltic neighbors give useful lessons in agility and regional partnership.

Bastian Giegerich clarified what strategic autonomy means in practical terms for Europe. It’s the ability to independently secure key military and technological capabilities without undue reliance on the United States. He explained that Europe currently lacks independent space launch capabilities, secure communication networks equivalent to Starlink, integrated missile defense systems, and advanced surveillance technology.

From Dependency to Autonomy: Closing Europe’s Critical Gaps

Underscoring Europe’s reliance on over 500 F-35 fighter jets by 2030 — produced and maintained by the United States — Giegerich stressed the need for Europe to develop complementary capabilities, such as secure communications and autonomous defense platforms, to avoid strategic vulnerabilities.

All the panelists called for increased defense spending but focused on tech innovation as opposed to traditional infrastructure spending. Jürgen-Joachim von Sandart noted research that shows major economic growth and prosperity can occur from defense investment.

Even though there’s potential, hurdles remain. Europe faces regulatory hurdles and slow procurement processes that hamper innovation. Inspired by the U.S. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), experts argued for streamlined European procurement and regulatory reforms, including rapid single-source contracts to innovative startups and early-stage investments in promising defense technologies.

The panel also discussed shifting public perceptions, particularly in Germany. Public support for increased defense spending and increased vigilance of Russian threats surged dramatically following the invasion of Ukraine. This shift provides unprecedented political momentum for defense reform, offering a critical window of opportunity.

Urgency was the constant throughout the discussion. Jürgen-Joachim von Sandart said the next three years are critical and Europe must act now to enhance its military readiness and independence. Some argued that collaboration with the US is key, while others stressed the importance of reducing dependency on others.

Europe’s path forward is clear but challenging. It requires stronger military deterrence, tackling hybrid threats, investing in autonomous solutions, and substantially increasing defense tech spending.

Will Europe seize this moment or will it fall behind as geopolitical tensions escalate? The answer will determine Europe’s future for decades to come.